As vaccines continue to roll out across the nation, there's some good news on the horizon: the U.S. is on track to reach herd immunity by mid-summer, according to Oliver Wyman's COVID-19 Pandemic Navigator.
The herd immunity threshold will be crossed when 71 percent of the U.S. population has either been exposed to COVID or vaccinated, according to the firm. However, different states will reach that threshold at different times, and Oliver Wyman stressed that Americans should stay vigilant as new variants of the virus emerge.
States like New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island will be among the first states to reach that key tipping point of herd immunity, which could come as soon as late May or early June. This is due to these states having the highest infection levels to date. Maine and Hawaii, both of which had low levels of infection, are predicted to be among the last states to reach herd immunity, according to Oliver Wyman's modeling.
"Vaccinations will be critical for each state to reach herd immunity, especially for states with lower levels of COVID-19 infections to date," says Ugur Koyluoglu, Oliver Wyman partner. "Despite having different guidelines on who qualifies to be vaccinated in each state, the pace of vaccination has been fast and accelerating across all states, which is good news and essential for herd immunity. Moving forward the key will be to ensure enough of the population is willing to be vaccinated."
Oliver Wyman's Pandemic Navigator is unique among its peers because not only does it forecast confirmed COVID-19 cases, but undetected ones as well, both historically and into the future. The model projects the number of people who have already been vaccinated as well as how many are expected to get the vaccine.
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