A new year brings new opportunity and with it, often new optimism. Each year, we do the best we can do at prognosticating what the year ahead holds for the consulting profession. We do this three ways: anecdotally, scientifically and qualitatively.
More specifically: conversations I'm having with firm and practice leaders every day; an executive outlook survey; and, exclusive interviews with a hand-selected sampling of firm leaders. By taking it all into account, we feel we can triangulate and make an educated guess as to what happened, what's happening and what is going to happen in the consulting profession and the markets it serves.
Usually, the Executive Outlook has been an exercise in hyperbole. Or maybe it's wishful thinking. Or hope. Whatever it is, the last few years we've seen dramatic, and as it turns out, wildly optimistic forecasts from firm leaders. For instance, last year some 91 percent of executives expected growth, and more than half of them—54 percent—said it would be more than 10 percent.
Then, when we'd compare the actual numbers against the previous year's predictions, reality would set in. For instance, this year's survey revealed the numbers were more like 75 percent and 39 percent, respectively.
But a funny thing happened on the way to putting together this year's Outlook: The numbers weren't as rosy, the interviews weren't as over-the-top and the conversations I had with firm leaders reveal a real sense of realism about the economy. Hint: There's still a ton of uncertainty out there.
Consider this: When we asked leaders to forecast 2013 revenue growth, 80 percent said their business would grow and 48 percent said it would be by double digits. Still solid, but they're the lowest percentages we've seen in three years. How is that possible? There's no denying the overall economy is better off right now than it's been a while.
So, what's going on? Are we headed for a terrible year? I don't think so at all, actually. What I think is at the root of these results is a "we won't get fooled again" mentality on the part of the consulting leadership.
That's refreshing. And I think it's a very good sign.
Joseph Kornik
Publisher & Editor-in-Chief
jkornik@consultingmag.com
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