You could forgive anyone who reads our 2011 Outlook story and thinks they've stepped back in time… say to 2006 or 2007. Remember those days? Any firm without a double-digit CAGR clearly wasn't trying or had a flawed business model. Talent was scarce and recruiting qualified folks to actually do all the work that was in the pipeline was a pipe dream.
Then came 2008: The credit crunch in the Spring and the fall in the Fall. Then came 2009: (Feel free to insert your own descriptive phrase here). Then came 2010: The profession took the blow and, for the most part, is still standing. Yes, we live to fight another day.
And here we are in 2011, and it's almost as if we're back to normal (and by that I mean the Old Normal). As part of our eight-page 2011 Outlook story, we asked the leaders of the profession what they expect in the year ahead. Turns out, nearly everyone is bullish and there are double-digit growth projections as far as the eye can see.
And talent? Well, forget about finding good people, and even if you do, there's no chance they'll be up to speed in time to make a dent in all that new business. And how about this? The firm leaders we talked to say the New Talent War—finding the supply to keep up with the growing demand—is what keeps them up at night. Wow, have we come a long way or what?
Consider this: In our exclusive 2011 outlook survey, more than 80 percent of firm leaders anticipate growth to their top line, including just over half who anticipate double-digit improvements. In addition, some 80 percent of firm leaders say their net profits will improve.
For starters, most firms ended the year strong and suddenly 2009 and the beginning of 2010 seem like a long time ago. Riding that upbeat uptick wave right into the new year, firms are banking on a recovering economy and clients needing help making sense of completely transformed business models and industries.
Meanwhile, in our cover story, Mark Goodburn, vice chairman and head of the advisory practice at KPMG, says the firm will double its global advisory revenue by 2015. To reach that $13 billion goal, KPMG will have to average about 15 percent CAGR over the next five years, or perhaps more likely, have a very aggressive M&A strategy.
Either way, that growth will be harder to come by in what most economists agree will be a period of slow growth for the economy. All this optimism begs the question: Is it real and justified or are we just sick and tired of the alternative? Well, the short answer is it's probably a little bit of both. But after all that we've been through the last two years, we'll take it. Looks like happy days are here again!
And it's about time.
Joseph Kornik
Editor-in-Chief
jkornik@consultingmag.com
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