SURVEY: Middle Market Business Index Sees Sharp Decline Amid Trade War, Inflation Fears

RSM survey suggests economic pullback as middle market firms slow CapEx and hiring plans.

Michael Webb | June 12, 2025

The RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI), presented by RSM US LLP in partnership with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, experienced a significant drop in the second quarter, falling to 124.5 from 143.2 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This 18.7-point decrease marks the second-largest quarterly decline in the survey's 10-year history, as businesses grapple with rising costs and uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs.

Why it matters: This sharp downturn in sentiment among middle market firms, which are crucial to the U.S. economy, signals a potential economic pullback. Executives are responding by slowing down capital expenditures and hiring plans, raising concerns about near-term growth prospects.

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