Retailers should expect a modest increase in 2012 holiday sales, about 3.5 percent to 4 percent increase over last year, according to a recent Deloitte forecast. Deloitte's retail & distribution practice expects total holiday sales to climb to between $920 and $925 billion in November through January holiday sales (excluding motor vehicles and gasoline) over last season. This growth rate is below last year's 5.9 percent gain. Additionally, Deloitte forecasts a 15 to 17 percent increase in non-store sales.
"Economic headwinds nagging consumers this fall include stubbornly high gasoline prices that continue to creep up and soft housing and job markets," says Carl Steidtmann, Deloitte's Chief Economist.
"While consumers turned out in the summer to give retailers solid gains for a few months, that pace may be difficult to sustain through the end of the year. Consumers and businesses alike may pause in advance of the election; however, retailers may benefit from a post-election consumer spending boost."
