"Reviving the Commercial Aircraft Supply Chain" report from Oliver Wyman and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that ongoing aerospace supply chain disruptions will cost the airline industry more than $11 billion in 2025.

Why it matters: Delays in producing new aircraft and parts are forcing airlines to keep older, less efficient planes in service longer. This has a direct financial impact, driving up costs for fuel, maintenance, and leasing while limiting carriers' ability to meet rising passenger demand.

By the numbers: The report breaks down the estimated $11 billion in costs:

  • $4.2 billion in excess fuel costs from operating older aircraft.
  • $3.1 billion in additional maintenance for an aging global fleet.
  • $2.6 billion in increased engine leasing costs, with aircraft lease rates up 20-30% since 2019.
  • $1.4 billion in costs for holding surplus spare parts inventory.
The big picture: The worldwide commercial aircraft backlog hit a record of over 17,000 planes in 2024, a significant jump from the pre-2019 average of around 13,000. This production slowdown is happening as passenger demand continues to rebound.

  • In 2024, passenger demand grew by 10.4%, outpacing the 8.7% expansion in airline capacity.
  • The report identifies geopolitical instability, raw material shortages, and tight labor markets as key contributors to the supply-demand imbalance.
What they're saying: "Airlines depend on a reliable supply chain to operate and grow their fleets efficiently. Now we have unprecedented waits for aircraft, engines and parts and unpredictable delivery schedules," said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

  • "We see an opportunity to catalyze an improvement in supply chain performance that will benefit everyone, but this will require collective steps to reshape the structure of the aerospace industry and work together on transparency and talent,” said Matthew Poitras, a Partner in Oliver Wyman’s Transportation and Advanced Industrials practice.
What to watch: The report outlines several initiatives for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), suppliers, and airlines to build a more resilient supply chain

  • The proposals include opening up the aftermarket for parts and services, creating greater visibility across all supplier levels to spot risks earlier, and leveraging data for predictive maintenance to reduce downtime.
  • The study also calls for expanding repair capacity and accelerating approvals for alternative parts to ease current bottlenecks.

Download the Reviving the Commercial Aircraft Supply Chain report here.

SOURCE: IATA (International Air Transport Association)

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