Would you believe it's been nearly 90 years since we first started hearing about driverless, or autonomous, vehicles? That's right, it wasn't too long after the automobile debuted in the 1880s that the Achen Motor Company drove a "phantom automobile" through the streets of Milwaukee on Dec. 8, 1926. That was basically the first remote-controlled car—it just happened to be life-sized.
The first self-sufficient driverless cars debuted in the 1980s when Carnegie Mellon and Mercedes-Benz teamed to launch what were described as "robot-cars." Today, headlines about driver-less cars are about as common as Honda Accords.
But Brian Collie, a Partner and Managing Director at The Boston Consulting Group who leads the firm's North America automotive sector, estimates that autonomous vehicles will account for only about 10 to 15 percent of the market in 20 years. So why all the hype?
For starters, it's a pretty fascinating idea, right? We'll simply get in our cars, punch in a few coordinates, sit back and relax until we arrive at our preprogrammed destination Not so fast. Sure, when it's your job to drive the family to Disney World it couldn't be better. But what about a quick trip to the market? Still worth it?
There are several obstacles to overcome. And some may even be deal breakers. There's the rather fascinating moral dilemma of whether or not your driverless car should be programmed with the greater good in mind. For instance, given the choice of driving into a schoolyard full of children or you off a cliff, what should it choose? (Imagine sitting powerless in the front seat as that algorithm is calculating?)
Moral dilemmas aside, there's that other little pesky problem to overcome—many people actually like to drive. It's the reason Car & Driver has been around since 1955 and the publication has more than 1.2 million subscribers today.
It's a fascinating topic and a part of this month's cover story on the Automotive Sector. And if you'll allow us just a moment to toot our own horn, it's a pretty darn good read. Beep! Beep!
Joseph Kornik Publisher & Editor-in-Chief jkornik@alm.com
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