Archstone Predicts 'Bah Humbug' Holiday Season

Archstone Consulting’s research is predicting this holiday season will be more “Bah humbug” than “Deck the Halls” thanks to the global economic downturn this year.

| December 02, 2008

Archstone Consulting's research is predicting this holiday season will be more "Bah humbug" than "Deck the Halls" thanks to the global economic downturn this year.

"They have that term 'Blue Christmas,' right? It'll be the toughest Christmas, we say, since 2001 and maybe even before that, since the '90s recession. We're looking at a .5 percent to 1 percent increase in sales," says Michael Unger, a principal at the firm who led this year's holiday-related retail research. In fact, he adds, when one factors in inflation, retailers could actually see a contraction during what's traditionally the best time of the year.
Unger says Archstone looks at a number of factors when determining how the holiday season will shape up, including disposable income and unemployment. But this year, there's the added factor of the financial markets.

"I don't know that everyone understands how [the financial crisis] impacts them, but it doesn't matter. There's a mental weight on people's heads," Unger says.

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